It’s Not Who’ll Be In The American Idol Finale. Question Is: Which David Will Win?

Provided that there will be no major screw-ups by the two David’s nor any kind of ‘divine intervention’ by the producers, the next few rounds of the American Idol will be exactly like the past few rounds – a series of agonizingly predictable episodes of everybody taking the musical chair of bottom positions except David … and David.  It is not even a remote question of who will be in the final two.  In the absence of a dark horse in this season, we may as well fast forward to the finale and get over and done with what this season ultimately offers – a glorious battle between the little David and the Goliath who also called David; a battle of the soothing pitch perfect young vocalist who specializes in ballads and voice improvisation against the more mature, stage dominator, and arguably the most original singer of all seasons; and if that is not enough, a pianist against a rock guitarist.  Who can really tell what the outcome will be this end May?  Does anyone really care?  I don’t because I love them both.

What American Idol desperately needs is a winner who will have a career after the show, to stand the testimony of time that the producers do discover talents all over US.  Season 1 winner Kelly Clarkson had some fantastic achievement on her first and second albums (2x and 6x platinum in US) but is on decline with her latest one.  Carrie Underwood from season 4 stands as the favorite star of the American Idol having a 7x platinum sales on her debut and for her latest work, a 2x platinum sales.  Recent Idols such as Taylor Hicks and Jordin Sparks are embarrassments to the franchise.  Even the runner-ups are not doing well except Daughtry who achieved a 4x platinum over his band’s debut.

So, who can save the franchise?  David Archuleta or David Cook?  To pick a promising recording artist, my money is on Cook.
 
I love to analyze the weekly results and the trends with my friends – those are also fans of the American Idol.  There are many factors that work with the ‘physics’ of this TV reality powerhouse.  Over 30+ million votes are cast (more towards the finale) by the audience each week and base on what?  Here are the down right dirty open secrets of American Idol that I am sure everyone knows but no one is crazy enough to pen down.  Please note that not one attribute is the governing factor when we attempt to spot the weekly trending.  We need to look at a bigger picture most of the time.

• Sex: The only season that has contestants of the same sex in the final 3 was, I believe, season 3 with Fantasia, Jasmine, and Diana.  It is rare to see three or more consecutive elimination of the same sex.  In recent years, happened only once in season 6 and didn’t happen at all in season 5.  Season 4 was an odd one but by and large, opposite sex – between a viewer and a contestant – does attract.  So, is it as simple as …
• Sex appeal: Not!  Fortunately, voters do usually prefer skills over appeal.  But how about last season’s great vocalist Melinda DooLittle?  That has to do with …
• Growth: Viewers love to see growth.  We love to see not only the heroes but also the making of heroes.  And we love to be influenced by …
• Judges’ preferences: Besides Paula’s comments, I think viewers do listen to judges’ reaction to each contestant’s performance.  I admit that I do not agree with them all the time.  However, if Randy and Simon are a fan of a someone, that someone is almost certainly going to sail through to the top.  But there is one more person I have not mentioned …
• Ryan Seacrest: I once read a book (Tipping Point I think) on how a TV anchor’s approving smile could affect the voters’ choice of a presidential candidate.  I personally think that Ryan is a lot powerful than some may think.  At the end of the performance, before he announces the the number to vote, the questions he asks, the gestures he makes – all can give the contestants a little push to a certain direction, good or bad.  Surely you may ask: this is a singing competition and so …
• Weekly performance: Matters of course.  More so in the initial stage.  But we all know that at times (remember this season who forgot the lyrics and who had to restart the performance but yet they did better than survived?), it is …
• Fan-base: At work.  At later stage, it is almost all that matters.  And while we are at that, why don’t we examine the contestant’s …
• Home town support: If you are from LA where celebrities are everywhere, you probably won’t have as much home town support as others (think Katharine McPhee).  That pub you often frequent, the school you grew up with, the church you go, they all add up.  OK.  What else are there to compare against others?  Could it be …
• Genre: Can American Idol sustains, say, two rockers till late stage?  I think not.  Votes will have to be split amongst contestants of similar genres.  And if your rocker competitor get voted out of the competition, a chunk of the future votes may possibly land onto you and while we are in this topic …
• Who get voted out last week: Assuming that voters will continue to vote even if the contestants they support leave the competition, I often challenge my mind on questions like: OK, now that Michael Johns get voted out, who would his supporters vote for next?  Imagine that if I do like Michael Johns, what do I like about him?  Talking about voters’ preferences, here is one piece of trivial thoughts that may or may not hold water.
• Race (?!): 12.5% of Americans are black.  Majority of the blacks support Obama.  That aside, what about …
• Age group:  Instinctively, I feel that a 21 years old girl may go crazy over the 25 years old David Cook than the 17 years old David Archuleta.  And last but not the least …
• Divine Intervention: American Idol is a show business.  There are invisible hands behind the scene.  Maybe it is the producers; maybe someone or some entities have a stake on one of the contestants.  Regardless, you will be entertained.  And someone is getting paid for getting you entertained.  Oh, guess what?  I am not done yet.  One final last point (bad English, but who cares?) …
• Unknown unknown and a game of personality: Cliché as it sounds, there are signals and information that are simply hard to pick up beforehand.  Scandals can spawn from nowhere (like the provocative photos of Antonella Barba in season 6 circulated in the Internet or the news of David Hernandez in the current season as a male stripper … for men).  And we have seen personality that works (David Archuleta’s boyish giggles), personality that should have worked (Kady Malloy’s impersonation of Britney Spears is just oh so funny), and personality that doesn’t.  Star quality to the singers is tantamount to the X-factor of the models – not only you have to born with it but also have to flaunt it in front of the crowd.  The show is called “American Idol” after all, instead of “So You Think You Can Sing”.

OK.  I purposely write this blog entry so long that 99.99% of my readers won’t reach this line.  And I am going to put my money where my mouth is and tell you who I think will win the American Idol.  Hence, even if I am wrong, only a 0.01% of the population may notice and I won’t end up with tons of comments posted here on May 22 to laugh at me.

Based on what I have observed so far, Cook will be the winner.  Cynthia will be upset.  And once again, we will support a different finalist.

What’s new?

And even if I am wrong, I will still stand by all that I have written here with perhaps some fine tuning – part and puzzle of the trending exercise.